AI, investment and the price of falling behind
The article asks whether spending to protect existing income is raising demand for capital and real yields without equivalent productivity gains.
Investment research
Gilts, LDI
& global macro
Pension cash flows, government bond markets and liability-driven investment (LDI).
Working model
From pension promises to a gilt hedge
Follow three interactive stages: build the pension liability, compare the available gilt shapes and watch the 46-gilt hedge come together. Inspect the holdings and see where exposure remains unmatched.
The accompanying working paper develops exposure transport hedging and compares its results with other ways of matching the liability.
Model edition: September 2026 · Fully specified inputs, four hedge objectives and reproducible scenario results.
Matching exposure through time
Pension liabilityGilt portfolio
Selected articles
Markets, institutions and incentives
Published on Modern Tontines. Dates identify the market, policy and tax context of each article.
Read article
Transparency about the wrong thing
How central-bank guidance affects market uncertainty and leverage, drawing on meetings with Paul Tucker and Haruhiko Kuroda.
The last secret discount
Why AI that helps customers compare complicated prices could also make price competition less attractive to dominant suppliers.
Show me the liability and I will show you the horizon
How early investment returns shape a pension’s eventual payments, and why each payment date needs its own investment horizon.
See the investment ladderGilts, Dividends and a Shed Full of Machinery
A tax-system thought experiment linking low-coupon gilts, dividends, commercial woodland and machinery.
First, do no harm to the Gilt Market
A response to the Bank of England’s gilt repo proposals, examining how haircut floors and clearing affect dealers' capacity to intermediate.
Introducing the Gilt Ladder Hedge App
A worked introduction to constructing a gilt portfolio around a chosen schedule of future payments.
Explore the gilt hedgePension design
Sharing longevity and investment risk
Set for Life: £10,000 a month for 30 years
A five-year backtest tests a gilt-and-cash portfolio against a fixed monthly payment promise, using cash-triggered rebalancing and no borrowing.
Explore the hedging methodCan CDC allocate risk, not just pool it?
A proposal to update members' target benefits through audited experience allocation before applying the common CDC funding adjustment.
How fair sharing worksThe annuity as an inheritance machine
A model comparing an inherited gilt ladder with regular gifts funded by the additional income from longevity pooling.
Member and beneficiary rightsHow the New Dutch Pension System Really Works
A conceptual explanation of the Dutch pension reforms through target-date funds, age-dependent risk and a shared buffer.
Explore the pension designFrom Gilt Ladders to Target‑Date Funds
An early simulation of funding separate retirement payments with target-date funds, testing glide paths and risk preferences.
Follow the target-date ladderModern Tontines on Substack
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New articles on pensions, fixed income and financial markets, alongside updates from the tontine research.