Research programme · September 2026 edition
From fair transfers to a working pension
The objective is a modern tontine whose funding, investment and distribution rules can be explained and tested together.
The allocation work establishes conditions for fair sharing under a mortality model. The September 2026 experiment connects those transfers with an investment ladder and dated payments. Its unresolved paths identify where the next operating rules are needed.
The next integrated study
- Complete the continuation policy. Decide how retained commitments are supported or settled when ordinary FTP cannot continue.
- Measure the full income distribution. Follow every eligible entitlement through the resulting policy, including shortfalls and later-life payments.
- Revisit the opening investments. Compare the resulting certainty equivalents with the funding targets, then test sensitivity to mortality, investments and preferences.
These steps connect the capacity research with the member outcomes. They also determine which funding changes the evidence supports.
How the work fits together
The income ladder
The experiment follows forty dated rungs through a payment ledger that conserves each account’s assets.
Next: Add later contributions, member-specific planning horizons and provision beyond the final rung.
Initial funding
The experiment compares certainty-equivalent funding with payments produced by actual FTP allocations.
Next: Value the complete payment distribution, including continuation outcomes and preferences across dates.
Investments
The experiment simulates one equity-to-bond glidepath.
Next: Compare investment policies, costs and responses to gains and losses.
Payments and buffers
The experiment releases each rung in full and pays its proceeds one year later.
Next: Compare that full-proceeds rule with alternatives; specify any retained buffer’s ownership and the funding of shortfalls.
Fair allocations
The papers calculate fair allocations for heterogeneous members and specified death batches, with independent checks.
Next: Test dependence, mortality revisions and empirically justified populations.
Continuation
The papers give exact small-pool examples covering specified numbers of deaths in the next event.
Next: Integrate a continuation policy with the full investment and payment calendar.
Pool transfers
The economic rights and capacity constraints are identified.
Next: Specify transfer valuation, sender and receiver checks, and settlement when no pool can accept the commitment.
Operation
The required custody, calculation and administration functions are identified.
Next: Assign responsibilities for verification, handover, disputes and closure.
The published evidence
The fair-allocation papers develop the fair-allocation formulation, practical calculations and separate audits. The continuation papers examine how the pool’s ability to continue changes after allocations and distributions.
The funding paper derives the funding baseline. The ladder experiment follows three heterogeneous cohorts through investments, FTP transfers and payments.
Verification
The large-pool allocation experiments include synthetic populations of 1,000 and 10,000 members. Separate chronological-death experiments examined 4,148 states across 45 annual paths. The ladder experiment adds 3,000 ladder histories and 728,300 audited single-death allocations.
The batch-continuation examples use exact rational checks in small enumerated pools. The integrated simulation uses floating-point checks and records its stopping states. Each paper sets out the events, horizon and numerical method covered by its results.